Malaysia is gearing up for a national election in the coming weeks in an apparently upbeat mood that, barring some surprise upset, should usher in a period of transition into a new generation of leadership bent on consolidating the gains of the Mahatir era.

The country of 22 million in Southeast Asia internally and externally is projecting an image of dynamism and optimism that its leaders hope will rub off on its diverse, sometimes squabbling populations.

New Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has also been touring the country and the region also radiating a cheerful confidence and promising to spread the prosperity and root out corruption in a way that contrasts somewhat with the sometimes intense confrontational style of his predecessor’s lengthy rule.

The Prime Minister's Palace in Putrajaya

Other political parties are also in full action in their quest to dent the virtual monopoly on power exercised by the United National Malay Organisation (UNMO) and its 14-member coalition partners in the Barisan Nasional (BN) majority. The main opposition comes from the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Chinese and Indian parties and small reformist movement, the Aliran. They paint a different picture of the Mahatir era as tainted by wasteful showcase and industrial projects, abuses of human rights and democracy and economic disparities between a growing and prosperous middle class and poverty in the rural population. The PAS has control of two of the country´s 13 states and introduced Islamic Sharia law. The country is 60% Muslim. They tend to speak of “demahatirising” the country and politics or “cleaning up the mess.”

In the coming polls, which must be called by November but are widely expected to be held in March, 10.3 million voters of the country’s 22 million population will choose 219 representatives to the Lower House of Parliament. They will also choose lawmakers for 13 state assemblies, which have a total of 527 seats.

The National Election Commission has been clearing the way for the campaign and vote which some in the country believe could take place before the end of March or soon thereafter, following a short campaign..

Vote will test Badawi

The vote will be a severe test for Abdullah Badawi four months after taking over his post and analysts are watching for his ability to prevent other state “dominoes” falling into opposition PAS control. Both he and UNMO as well as PAS are expressing confidence of winning the vote in two key additional states, Kedah and Perlis. Governance and corruption are said to be the major issues for both the Barisan coalition and PAS, with the latter seeking to establish itself as a more moral option and Badawi hoping his recently launched anti-corruption drive will be convincing.

Should he fail in winning these two states and raising the Barisan majority nationwide, his position as UNMO leader could be weakened and challenged later this year when the party will again elect its leadership. “Malaysians believe in strong governments,” remarked an analyst associated with the majority recently in Kuala Lumpur.

Dr Mahatir Muhammed himself held the post for 22 years, sometimes under serious challenge, sometimes dominating from a commanding height, and bowed out in December to his political heir. During his tenure he was able to forge a national political and economic identity that could have seemed out of reach in view of the country‘s troubled past.

Against the odds

“In 1969 we were a failed state with a per capita GDP lower than Haiti‘s“ remarked the veteran Malaysian commentator. He added that “many people thought we were a prime candidate for the dustbin of history or that we were a lame duck.” At that time, he and others explained, the state formed in the 1950s following (not following correct) lengthy periods of conflicts against the British, the Japanese and a Communist insurgency, was reeling from a series of ethnic and religious riots that some felt could be terminal.

He noted 13 reasons why the country had the odds stacked against it, ranging from its ethnic diversity and lack of democratic experience to the trauma of colonialism and the fact that it “was not in a good part of the world,” because of the multiple wars in Indochina and with Communist insurgents. He said that “In fact, this country is an artificial construct,” populated by an indigenous rural Malay population and more dynamic Chinese and Indian populations imported initially for the hard labour in the growing industries. This mixture proved to be combustible and exploded in a bloodbath of rioting in May 19, 1969 in a tragedy that remains in the collective memory today and that still weighs heavily on contemporary politics by furnishing a rationale for a “social contract” between the communities that embodies the country’s strict security, sedition and political controls. “But 1969 could happen at any time. It’s easy to create friction,” the source noted. These controls have kept the lid on tensions that, according to this analyst, could have turned the country into “a Cyprus, Lebanon or Biafra,” which experienced internal civil wars.

The controls are sometimes statutory, in the form of an Internal Security Act, Sedition Act or press licensing rules, they are sometimes discreet codes of political correctness. For example, there is no apparent over censorship and while the main media organs adhere to party lines, some minority dissenting publications and websites are tolerated.

After overcoming initial weakness and opposition Mahatir was stubbornly capable galvanising the country’s diverse ethnic and religious population into an impressive niche economy. An early period of this surge resulted from exploitation of its natural resources in tin, rubber and later palm oil. Passing through various phase of import substitution, industrialisation and movement up the technological value chain, the country became a “Asian tiger economy” of the 1990s and now boasts an average per capita income of over $3000 a year. Like other countries in the region, it had to struggle through the Asian financial and economic crisis of the late 1990s, but did so in a daring go-it-alone strategy that rebuffed IMF-prescribed remedies and preserved its system and achievements apparently intact. Many Malaysians acknowledge a debt to the dynamism of the Chinese population for the economic record, but also believe in “affirmative action” to assist the Malay population.

Proton Production in MalaysiaAs part of its economic development Mahatir imposed a number of mammoth projects designed both to create engines of growth and a sentiment of national pride and identity. Among the most prominent of the Mahatir undertakings were the establishment of the Proton brand of national automobiles, the Petronas oil company twin towers in Kuala Lumpur that were for a while the tallest buildings in the world, a new emerging national capital in Putrajaya and a high-tech information technology corridor in Cyberjaya, the huge Bakun hydro-electric dam in Sarawak or the Formula 1 automobile racetrack, some with only scant accounting.

New leadership style

The challenge for the appointed heir of this legacy is to build and benefit on these achievements, attack its shortcomings in a way that is credible enough to create his own following. Already, incoming Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who is widely perceived to be more low-key but perhaps more amiable, is said by the man in the street to fare well in relation to his predecessor. “Mahatir was good for the country, Badawi is good for the people,” was the way a proverbial taxi-driver sage was said to have put it.

Part of this new leadership imagine has been built in the past weeks and months on a campaign against corruption and gestures toward the rural, mostly Malay, population which has not benefited from the past urban, industrial development.

Some 18 corruption investigations have been declared as being opened against suspects sometimes associated with high-levels of the establishment and the Prime Minister and others have also announced programmes to develop the agricultural and fishing sector, including advanced methods or associated bio-technology.

While the anti-corruption campaign may appeal to the broader electorate and international investors, its investigations, charges and specific elements such as introduction of competitive bidding in the award of government contracts, has aroused unrest in the UNMO and business establishment, according to some estimates. The first corruption indictment against state-run Perwaja Steel boss Eric Chia, for example was a close associate of former PM Mahatir.

The wider of governance of the country is also an overriding issue, including the emotive questions of the role of Islam in society and politics. Some of the country’s institutions, ranging from the judiciary, to the press and corporate world were seen by some as having been undermined by Mahatir’s influence and Badawi actions may have been aimed at achieving a new balance of power, without upsetting the existing power structure – a difficult task in any society.

One such dilemma hanging over from the Mahatir era, is the handling of the case of former Mahatir Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, once the heir apparent who was deposed and sent to prison in 1998 in a highly-controversial trial and lengthy appeals until recently in January which also attracted international attention. Shortly after the destitution of Anwar, national elections in 1999 resulted in in a swing of votes from the leading UNMO coalition to the Muslim PAS party, which gained power in two states that UNM has probably no hope of winning back this time. The Anwar issue remains as another divisive one that fuels opposition criticism of the system inherited by Badawi. In such an atmosphere, the Islamic PAS party emerges as the main opposition and alternative to the ruling coalition, although it has been part of the coalition and in the past and such cooption might not be impossible again, according to one analyst.

In January and again in February police in Kuala Lumpur moved to disperse crowds planning demonstrations on the Anwar Ibrahim case and against alleged police corruption and brutality. They were seen as test of the new government’s resolve on issues related to governance and democracy.

As one commentator noted, “Burdened by the mystique of Mahatir’s ‘visionary leadership’, Abdullah must quickly debunk a widely-held view that ‘Mahatir is an impossible act to follow’, especially if the follower is as colourless as Abdullah himself.”