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Indonesia Election Shake-up Sets Stage for Presidency E-mail
Regions - Southeast Asia
Indonesia Election Shake-up Sets Stage for Presidency

Following Indonesian Parliamentary election results in April most attention was being focused on the complex and heated competition in the Presidential elections in July.

Immediately after the parliament elections, former President Abdurrhaman Wahid, General Wiranto and other party representatives were said to have met in a Jakarta hotel to discuss the outcome and possible strategies.

And the slumping Presidential party was also said to have held discussions with other groups in an effort to forge alliances for the vice presidency in the hopes of revitalising its campaign.

But in mid-April, former Security Minister Sisolo Bambang Yodhyono was said to have manoeuvred to improve his chances for the Presidency when moved to team up with resigning Golkar Welfare Minister Yussuf Kalla as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Twenty-four parties contested these elections for the 550-member Assembly, with those obtaining at least 5% of the vote permitted to present presidential candidates in the vote beginning July 5. Up until the last minute there existed considerable doubt about the ability to actually hold the elections because of the delay in installing voting booths and establishing the necessary system in this sprawling country of thousands of islands and more than 500,000 polling sites.

The results indicated that the leading Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle led by President Megawati Soekarnoputri had some 20.8% of the vote, followed by Golkar with 20% . The advance by Golkar, the party associated with the authoritarian rule of former President Soeharto, had suffered badly in the previous election in 1999 and had been largely written off as a political force. It seemed, in the eyes of many analysts, to have benefited from the feeling that the economic and social situation for most average citizens had declined since the transition.

Shortly after the elections, the European Union observer mission led by European Parliamentarian Glyn Ford became embroiled in controversy when it made an initial declaration the voting to have been conducted within reasonable bounds, while its full report on the process would be issued later. The preliminary declaration was instantly denounced by a number of civil society groups who said it was premature to pronounce judgment which might in the longer-term undermine the possible challenges of candidates or parties throughout the country.

In the event, a number of political parties and organisations demanded a recount of results in a number of districts.

The Parliament election results in April raised numerous questions about the other planned elections for later in the year, including the Presidential vote, the first such vote since the downfall of the Soeharto regime.

Among the new and complicating factors arising from the election outcome, were the apparent loss in popularity of President Magawati Soekarnoputri and her PDI party, accompanied by the resurgence of the once-discredited Golkar Party that was the instrument of Soeharto, and the sharp rise of the Democratic Party headed by former Minister for Internal Security Sisolo Bambang Yodhiyono, as well as the Islamic Party of Justice and Prosperity which had campaigned against corruption and nepotism. The Justice Party, which demonstrated extensive grass-roots support, advocated a soft-sell Islamic approach and increased its number of seats from seven to more than 40.

While Sisolo Bambang Yodhiyono, a former military officer, had been an establishment figure who had contested the Presidency in 1999 but had been pushed aside by Golkar chief Akbar Tandjung, had held Ministerial post in the Megawati Government until March 2004, he was seen as a strong candidate in his own right or as a potential kingmaker.

Numerous analysts suggested after the elections that he could chose to align his Party with Golkar, although the question of the Presidency would be open, or he could strike an alliance with Megawati, in which he might be Vice President and heir, or with the Islamic Movement as a new force.

Some European experts on Indonesia after sifting through the still partial results of the April 5 elections suggested that the campaigning for the first round of the Presidential election in July could much more heated than the relatively calm Parliament elections, because the stakes in the Presidency are considered much larger.

They also indicated that even the outcome of the Parliament elections were still uncertain since they could take another several weeks before vote from the outlying districts were tabulated. This, they added, could seriously affect the allocation of seats in the Parliament, since these tend to be rural districts which generally tend to be more conservative and could result in more seats for traditional forces such as Golkar, although they require much fewer votes than urban districts that tend to be less traditional.

 
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