The sporadic violence which had gripped Thailand’s southern provinces since the beginning of 2004 escalated into a major bloodbath and a potentially grave political and security crisis in late April when security forces alerted of possible terrorist attacks in one day killed more than 100 youths armed mostly with crude weapons.

The sporadic violence which had gripped Thailand’s southern provinces since the beginning of 2004 escalated into a major bloodbath and a potentially grave political and security crisis in late April when security forces alerted of possible terrorist attacks in one day killed more than 100 youths armed mostly with crude weapons.

The incidents in several different locations throughout the largely Muslim south sparked considerable turmoil throughout the country as critics alleged the security forces overreacted by using excessive force. A handful of police and military involved in the fighting were said to have been killed.

As concern and criticism spread, there were indications of further threats either already planned or in reaction to the clashes. Human rights and other activists suggested that the action could radicalise the population and called for an official but objective investigation.

While some where fearful of other forms of attacks such as suicide bombers, the Government dispatched two additional battalions of some 1000 troops to the region.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra initially dismissed the criticism of excessive force against the militants while newspapers and others pointed to the indications that the youths could have probably been neutralised with other methods. In one particular incident, 32 of the youths were gunned down while trying to shelter in a mosque. Some suggested the youths had probably been manipulated or enflamed by radical rhetoric or religious teachers.

The Prime Minister had also referred to the attackers as either drug-crazed youths or bandits and in the past had pointed to drug or gun-runners as responsible. But he later ordered an investigation into the incidents.

The troubles, however, further complicated the position of the Prime Minister, who had faced mounting criticism that dented if seemingly undented popularity of recent years. The handling of the bird flu disease epidemic in late 2003 and the decision to dispatch Thai troops to Iraq undermined the leadership he had exercised since his election three years earlier.

A separatist insurgency had flared in the southern region in the 1980s but had been largely overpowered until the new attacks that began on police and security forces in early 2004.

But there were signs that the latest incident was having both internal and international economic and political repercussions. Domestically, the economic which was highly dependent on external trade, investment and tourism was regarded as suffering from the after-effects of the tension. The country’s stock market prices and indexes had suffered a sharp downturn since the beginning of the year, investments were slowing and tourism also dropping as a result of the uncertainty.

And there was growing regional and international preoccupation with the possibility that this key country, which had been relatively free of the threat of terrorist activity in contrast to some of its neighbours in recent years, might also be subjected to similar threats. Although since the beginning of the uprisings in 2004, Thailand and its Prime Minister had sought to present an image of cooperation with neighbouring Malaysia, which adjoins the troubled southern provinces in turmoil, it was evident that the situation was provoking some tensions. There was an undercurrent of suspicion in Thailand that the attackers might either have some roots or seek shelter among the neighbouring Muslim states in Malaysia. Although the borders had previously been relatively open, the Thai security forces began erecting fences and patrolling the border regions.

In early May, a high-level Malaysian delegation travelled to Thailand to meet Prime Minister Thaksin and reportedly discuss the situation, apparently focused on intelligence-sharing.