The failure of the Burmese military government to release Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in time for the start of the national constitutional convention May 17 as anticipated or hoped set off a global storm of protest that has even included some of its most patient neighbours.

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Civil activists in London, however, commented that the EU and UN in the past had been ineffective in dealing with the regime and called for tightening of the pressure. They appealed for more targeted sanctions than those by the US, suggesting instead that they aim on gems, timber trade and oil and gas. But they noted that the continued operations by the French firm TOTAL and the announcement by Daewoo of a major gas find, could make the regime even more impermeable to such pressure. A spokesman for Burma Watch UK noted that the UN had never even called for any sanctions and the EU had barely applied some of its own announced sanctions. Although he also expressed scepticism about the reactions of Asian neighbours, including a surge of investment from India, he suggested one hopeful sign could be indication that China might ready to take a more active role in the issue.

The May 17 deadline passed with no official explanation to the scores of Asian and international emissaries and intermediaries who had emerged from recent contacts in Rangoon believing that the detained Nobel Prize winner and her National League for Democracy (NLD) would be among the participants in the convention drafting process. The process is in fact the resumption of a similar one begun in 1996 but was aborted after the NLD walked out in protest of the lack of democratic guarantees in the proposed constitution.

The decision by the military regime not allow the release of the NLD leader and the organisation’s participation in the constitution process has in essence invalidated any credibility in the process itself and in the proposed road map to democracy presented in August 2003 by Prime Minister Khin Nyunt. Although one European-based Burmese dissident remarked that “We never expected anything to happen,” many around the world and especially in Southeast Asia had hoped the road map and assurances given by Kinh Nyunt would turn out to be credible as a path to normalising the situation in the country and its relations with the outside world. The Burmese source also remarked that the non-participation or reservations of various ethnic groups in the country in the work of the convention could also be significant.

The US reacted to the failure to release Aung San Suu Kyi by extending its embargo on the country for another year. The European Union has had diplomatic and travel restrictions against the country, but some European firms, despite pressure in some countries to disengage, have maintained sizable operations there, a fact which has drawn criticism and even legal challenge. A report published in March by the Burma Campaign UK, said that rather than using its economic muscle to promote democracy in Burma, EU trade and investment was in fact playing a key role in bolstering the regime.

And international, regional and European leaders reacted with dismay to the news. Especially noteworthy were the reaction of UN Secretary General Koffi Anan and his special envoy to Burma, Razali Ismael. The latter has always been especially involved in the diplomatic attempt to secure workable solutions to the impasse. He especially must have felt betrayed following the contacts and declarations made to him in February on his last mission to Burma that had led to some optimism.

Following the latest developments, he told journalists in Kuala Lumpur that he would seek to enlist the assistance of India, China and ASEAN, all influential neighbours of Burma’s, in the international effort. He noted that the change in government in India could present new opportunities, since the previous BJP-led government had engaged in improving relations with Burma while the Congress Party Government led by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had actively pressed for the release of Suu Kyi. He also said that the absence of the NLD and its leader in the convention drafting process “makes it difficult for the UN to see the convention as a legitimate effort toward democratisation and national reconciliation.”

Razali also said that on the assumption that Suu Kyi would be released on time to participate in the convention, he and the UN had worked hard with several countries to help Burma with incentives and humanitarian and technical assistance. These countries had said they would only assist on the condition that Suu Kyi was released. But he said, it might not be too late.

Also notable was the reaction of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who said he as “disappointed” by the Burmese government actions, adding that he and other neighbours had believed in the release of Suu Kyi. ASEAN neighbours, who generally hesitate to become involved in members’ internal issues but had begun to apply pressure on Burma in 2003, were seen as particularly upset by the turn of events in particular because the road map had been presented to them as a genuine plan, but also because Burma would assume the presidency of ASEAN in 2006. The Indonesian Foreign Ministry in a statement May 17 expressed “its concern that the National Convention and the existing process of democratisation and national reconciliation in Myanmar (Burma) is considered as falling short of an expectation widely shared by the international community,",

The convention began in an isolated ares 40-kilometers outside the capital with participants selected by the government and under strict rules of behaviour and speech. Journalists were also not permitted to bring any equipment and foreign media was excluded.

A spokesman for the UN Secretary General also said “that for the convention to be credible it must be all-inclusive and that the delegates must be able to express their views without sanctions.” He also urged ASEAN states to tighten pressure on the military regime which seized power in 1988 and overturned 1990 election results that would have established the NLD as a majority.