The world’s largest election process began in early April in India in relative calm and continued optimism and was expected to culminate in May with the re-election of the Nationalist-led coalition of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and a shift to a new generation of hereditary leadership in the main opposition.

In the huge country and electorate, voting was to be conducted in five regional stages, with the total results tabulated and released only after the last round in May. During the period no official results, but only exit poll estimates conducted by unofficial organisation were available. For the first time, the tabulation was to be conducted by computer, sometimes delivered on the backs of elephants.

Much of the electorate was regarded as backing the view that the country had turned the corner into greater prosperity and political détente in the region and that the opposition Congress Party had little to offer at the moment despite some hesitation about potentially divisive elements in the Hindu nationalist movement. This confidence was expressed during the polling period by Defence Minister George Fernandes, who told an interviewer: “There is no contest. There is a wave in our favour. Our Government has performed on all fronts. There is no worthwhile opposition or leader to pose us any challenge.”

As well as backing the record of the BJP-NDA coalition in power for the past five years, the campaign was also future-oriented and marked by the age of Prime Minister Vajpayee and the succession of Congress leader Sonia Gandhi by her son and daughter. Both the Prime Minister, who was considered as perhaps too old, and Sonia Gandhi, criticised because of her Italian birth and links to corruption, were regarded in some doubt.

Some of the international community was watching the unfolding of the extensive democratic process with interest and fascination. The outcome could have considerable international impact. The results were expected to have ramification on the process of regional détente with Pakistan, the economic growth and reform process and improved relations with countries such as China and the US.

On April 26, Rahul Gandhi, 33, was to stand for election in the state of Uttar Pradesh in the third of the five regional rounds of voting that will terminate with the final tabulations May 13. His sister, Priyanka, 32, was not standing for election but was also regarded as a spokesperson for the new generation.

The voting in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which account for one-quarter of the seats in the lower House were considered significant for the overall outcome. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul were both seeking seats in UP, where 170 million population reside. The 11 states voting on that day were the so-called Hindu heartland which had been the home for 12 of the 13 Indian Prime Ministers to date. For Rahul, it was his first bid for election in a constituency held by both his father and mother. And millions saw him as a natural heir to the dynasty that has already included three Prime Ministers.

Some exit polls, which are not considered as traditionally reliable, following that vote were forecasting that the BJP coalition would fail to reach a majority in the House and have to seek additional parties to support its already broad coalition of 15 members. The BJP and his forces had sought a two-thirds majority in order to make constitutional changes that might include religious issues. These same polls also saw Congress as losing some overall ground.

Sporadic violence broke out in some areas, especially in Andrha Pradesh, where chief minister Chandrababu Naidu was under serious challenge. Fighting with stones and weapons broke between supporters and opponents, including Maoists, in this tight race that could be important nationally since Naidu and his party had brought additional strength of 29 seats to the BJP-led coalition. The debacle for Naidu, who had built Bangalore and some parts of Andrha Pradesh into a glitzy high-tech showcase and gambled on early elections, was pointed to as an example that the “feel-good” factor and hype did not extend to all the population and may have backfired with those who resented being left out.

In Muslim Jammu-Kashmir also voting on April 23, the threat of violence was also seen as instrumental in keeping voting attendance at the polls low. There were also some indications that parts of the electorate were uncomfortable with the BJP’s association with divisive communal and religion based politics.

In the aftermath of the second round and after the announcement of unofficial exit polls and not the official results, India’s stock markets plunged as investors and speculators sold on the prospects of political uncertainty indicated by the polls, which called into question the expected romp to victory of the BJP-NDA coalition and its generally pro-reform agenda. There was also some concern that if the BJP alliance failed to appeal to centrist voters it would revert to its nationalistic roots.

The BJP nationwide campaign, led by its veteran Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, had played up the prosperity and peace image of the Prime Minister under the slogan “India Shining.” It had hoped to capitalise on 9% economic growth, peace negotiations with Pakistan, even a good monsoon and an opposition in apparent disarray. But this positive image had been challenged as misleading for the vast majority of India’s population by the Congress and other opposition parties who also attacked the image of corruption in politics.

In the wake of the latest round of voting and predictions of unexpected results, some Congress Party leaders were suggesting that they might be able to form a government without outside allegiances and some other partners in the ruling NDA coalition were suggesting they might also try to assume leadership.

After first denying the significance of the exit polls indicating it might be losing ground, there were reports the BJP had begun to take the indications seriously and redoubling its campaigning efforts, while visualising potential new party alliances to recover lost ground. Both BJP and Congress leaders were also campaigning hard in the remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh which had not voted and were scheduled to do so in early May.