An international donors conference attended by some 50 countries on the stabilisation and reconstruction of Afghanistan in Berlin in March agreed to furnish billions of dollars in new funds for this purpose and for national elections in September.

Attending the conference, the head of the provisional administration, Hamid Karzai, said the funds would eventually result in the establishment of a self-sustaining state dedicated to fighting terrorism and drugs.

He told the delegates from 50 countries and other international institutions that in a few years the country could break away from the legacy of 20 years of warfare and become a partner rather than a burden to the international community.

But the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which together pledged some $1 billion in loans and grants at the conference, said in a study that the country would probably require some $28 billion external funding in the coming seven years.

Other studies indicated that the funding to date had been undermined by the poor security situation and uneven flows of aid disbursal and that only a sustained and dramatic international effort would be able to prevent the turning of the country into a lawless, failed state that was a haven for terrorists and narco-traffickers. Some NGO experts also noted the central authority under Karzai had fewer forces at its disposal than the average warlord.

Karzai agreed that much of the country, especially near the Pakistani border, remained outside central control, but that it was determined to build on the success of having agreed a new national constitution in January by holding elections. However, he noted that only 1.5 million residents had been registered for the elections.

The Berlin conference on financing the reconstruction of Afghanistan took place against a background of a power struggle between the Kabul administration and some of the strongest regional military commanders and the military operations launched by Pakistani forces against suspected al Qaeda and Taliban shelters in the disputed tribal areas in Waziristan near the Afghan border. One such episode in Afghanistan involved an unusual clash in Herat between Central forces and those loyal to the local warlord Ismail Khan in which his son, who was also the central government Aviation Minister, was killed. In that conflict, the central authority sent 600 troops in the aftermath of the clash.

The situation in Afghanistan was also the subject of intense discussion in Brussels and elsewhere within EU and Western Alliance institutions. In late March EU Foreign Ministers called for a reform of Afghanistan‘s security institutions just a day after the clash in Herat. The EU statement said such a move was necessary to “ensure the establishment of law and order which would strengthen the authority of the Afghan transitional administration.“

EU diplomats were cited as claiming that efforts to disarm, demobilise or integrate these local militias had been hampered by some hesitation from the US which also saw these forces as useful in the war against terrorism. But their continued existence and power prevented the Kabul administration from extending its authority outside of the capital and into the other regions.

NATO also confirmed on March 22 it would also assist the Afghan authorities with security arrangements for the elections originally planned for June but delayed into September. This action was said to be separate from the NATO plans to establish provincial reconstruction teams in the North and South of the country by June. Some sources, however, were projecting difficulties in NATO securing sufficient troop commitments to accomplish these missions. It was said that some 3000 to 5000 troops would be needed for the elections, in addition to the 6500 that participate in the NATO-led International Stabilisation Assistance Force (ISAF). This would be difficult in view of the recent NATO decision to dispatch an additional 2400 soldiers to Kosovo following clashes there.

Addressing the Berlin conference, EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten on March 31 outlined the assistance the EU and Member States had devoted to Afghanistan and looked forward to further effort. He said at the first Tokyo donors meeting had pledged some €1 billion over five years but in fact had supplied considerably more than that rate. He noted, example that the EU Commission in the two years 2002 and 2003 had committed over €580 million, including about €130 million in humanitarian aid. He added that in 2004 some €245 million would be allocated. Patten said that the assistance to date had helped deliver health services, promote rapid rural development, reduce travel time on the Kabul-Jelalabad road and to enable key public sector workers, including teachers, doctors and police return to work.

Taking the Commission and the Member States together, he explained that the total EU support would reach some €700 million in 2004 and that some member states would make additional pledges at the conference. And he underlined the additional engagements by European states in providing ISAF and Provincial Reconstruction Team forces on the ground. He singled out the work of France, Germany, Italy and the UK in helping the Afghan Government to create an efficient army, police force and judicial system as well as to implement an anti-narcotics policy. He also noted that the Commission was supporting these efforts by channelling €177.5 million over 2003 and 2004 to promote effective law enforcement, sustainable alternative livelihoods and rapid rural development and growth.

As the Berlin meeting gathered, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group painted a gloomy picture of the situation in the country. A report appealed to the the conference "It is essential that they do more than pledge the $27.6 billion in aid over seven years that President Karzai's administration seeks.

The Berlin conference was requested to also discuss candidly the security failings and other internal obstacles that are seriously hindering the implementation of the 2001 Bonn Agreement and the future of democratic government in Afghanistan. It needs to call on NATO to deliver the robust international security presence outside Kabul it promised last fall but has been very slow to implement, the report continued.

"The international community's failure to expand security beyond the capital is perpetuating and even deepening the political and economic power of regional commanders", said Vikram Parekh, ICG Senior Analyst on Afghanistan. "NATO's appeal to member states to contribute a modest three battalions in the north to cover the first two phases of their proposed four-phase expansion has yet to result in a single firm commitment".

Much remained to be done to convince the Afghan public that the election process will be not only reasonably free and fair, but also meaningful, the ICG report stated. The legal framework for the elections remains unclear. President Karzai had yet to issue either a draft electoral law or a presidential decree on the controversial issue of provincial and district boundaries that would form electoral constituencies.

The registration of political parties has proceeded very slowly. Only about 1.5 million voters out of an estimated potential electorate of 10 million have been registered, and registration is markedly lower in the south and southeast in both absolute numbers and the proportion of women. The new Afghan National Army (ANA) was said to have suffered setbacks that limit its ability to extend the authority of the central government, facilitate the disarmament and reintegration (DR) process, and provide security during the elections. Its current strength of approximately 7,500 is still far short of the 40,000 projected by Coalition officers.

Poor coordination of Coalition counter-terrorism strategy with the Bonn political process had further stalled the disarmament and reintegration of Afghanistan's numerous ex-combatants. The planned establishment of new Special Forces-led militia units has provided a disincentive to disarm.

"Without a reinvigorated disarmament and reintegration process, political and economic life in both the centre and the provinces will continue to be dominated by the gun or the shadow of the gun", said Robert Templer, ICG Asia Program Director. "Democratic institutions can only develop in an environment that allows open discussion about governance, something that continues to elude Afghanistan more than two years after the signing of the Bonn Agreement".