In the face of considerable scepticism or outright disbelief in the outside world about its sketchy “road map,” some in Myanmar feel the troubled country may be embarked on a process that could lead to a new constitution or even elections before the end of the year.

The military leadership there, known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), in 2003 announced the seven-point road map which it said was aimed at reconciliation and democracy to its increasingly impatient Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) neighbours and the international community.

While short on details, the main elements were said to seek to draft a new constitution, multiparty democracy and peace with warring ethnic groups. The country has been essentially under military rule since its independence from Britain in 1948 and the current regime had abrogated the result of elections in 1990 which resulted in a victory for the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent much of the period since in prison or house arrest.

After years of delicate diplomacy in keeping with ASEAN’s policy of non-interference in members’ affairs, Yangon’s neighbours clearly became irritated with the lack of reform and the return Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammed burst out that Myanmar should be expelled from ASEAN and others began discussing other alternatives. One analyst from a neighbouring country noted in 2003 that “our policy of engagement has failed.” Another ASEAN diplomat also lamented that ASEAN had been forced to defend such a regime on issues like forced labour, which, he said, was “dragging us down.” The disappointment had been particularly heightened because hope had been rekindled momentarily in 2001 following some talks between the NLD and Suu Kyi and the SPDC, release of dozens of political prisoners and rumours of elections

“A year ago the country was in a very dark place,” commented one European expert based in the region, pointing to the jailing of Aung San Suu Kyi, the tightening of economic sanctions by the US government, mounting irritation by ASEAN. The situation arose following an attack by pro-military mobs or militias against an NLD rally. In was the third time in several years that such attacks had threatened the life of Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders and numerous supporters died in the attack. It was following the last incident that UN, US, EU and even ASEAN stepped up pressure against the leadership, with especially the US tightening economic sanctions and Japan suspending economic aid.

While the pressure applied on the SPDC by its ASEAN partners appears to have relaxed recently, a second Bangkok Forum was planned for March following the initial December meeting involving ASEAN and other international governments. While some additional pressure should be read into the convening of this second meeting, the European sources suggested that now that he has prepared the road map, ASEAN “wants to give Khin Nyunt room for manoeuvre.”

One Myanmar source noted that some 17 working groups have been set up within the constitution process to negotiate on various key elements. He remarked that the SPDC was striving to bring the various minority groups into the constitutional process and that the objective was to create a federal system under the constitution. He was optimistic that the opposition would go along with this constitutional process and added that “It is impossible to go back to the old constitution,” remarking for example that the old document referred to a unitary state and a socialistic political and economic system.

The convention process actually began more than 10 years earlier in 1993, with the NLD participating until 1995 when it walked out.

He suggested that a referendum could be held after the constitution was drafted in order to have a public ratification; Should that be accomplished before the end of the year it was entirely possible that elections would also be conducted in 2004, he added.

In recent weeks the SPDC has been negotiating with one of the main ethnic rebel factions, the Karen National Union and produced a cease-fire between the two sides. Since 1989 the government has secured such cease-fires with most of the rebel factions. These included the Sha, Wa, Shan, Kachin and ethnic Chinese rebellions totalling some 22 groups of militants. The agreements were believed to cover fishing, logging or mining rights. Most of these groups and regions are led by war-lords who rule with absolute power over their impoverished populations. In some cases the main source of revenues are opium and narcotic related but the population sees little of even that income.

In addition, in February the military rules released from prison the deputy leader of the NLD and placed him under house arrest at his home in the capital. The 77-year old Tin Oo, had been held in Kale prison 700-kilometers away since May 2003 following a clash between a pro-military mob and NLD activists in the south of the country. Suu Kyi and three other NLD party leaders remained under house arrest while five others were released in November, and there was widespread speculation that she would also be released soon. Amnesty International has estimated that some 1300 political prisoners were being held.

UN Special Representative Razali Ismael in early March was also reported to be in Yangon on a previously unannounced trip.The Malaysian diplomat has made repeated visits in the four years since his appointment in an international attempt to bridge the divide between the military government and the political opposition.