The never-ending twists and turns of the debate over the lifting of the EU symbolic embargo on arms sales to China for all intents and purposes endured an ultimate spasm when all the top French Presidential candidates indicated their opposition.

In addition to the three declarations related by the leading daily Le Monde April 17, the German Defence Minister confirmed his country’s own opposition during a visit to Asia last week, where meetings in China made no reference to the long-disputed question. These contrasted to the repeated appeal for the embargo removal by French Defence Minister Michelle Alliot Marie just a few days earlier during her visit to China.

Confirmation of the collapse of the drive to end the embargo could also nevertheless lead to the possibly embarrassing situation when and if the EU agrees to a binding code of conduct on arms sales in general without also lifting the embargo on China, a linkage that had previously been set as a condition.

EU Foreign Ministers in late 2006 were said to have agreed in principle to the terms of the long-discussed arms code of conduct, but had been blocked by French insistence that the embargo be lifted at the same time, according to EU officials and others.

The retiring French President, Jacques Chirac, and his already departed German counterpart, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had been the main lone champions of the removal of the 18-yeard old embargo. Their positions, had been opposed by many EU countries, but reluctantly and tentatively agreed to by others in the EU in 2005. Although the consensus had agreed that a decision would be made by the end of June 2005, the vociferous of intervention of the US, Japan, Taiwan and Australia had led to another embarrassing reversal.

Although the two European leaders and their Chinese colleagues had argued the measure imposed following the repression of dissidents in 1989 in Tienanmen Square was no longer appropriate to what had become a high-priority strategic bilateral relationship, the vociferous opposition countered that human rights were still a problem in China and that the threat existed of European weapons being used in a possible conflict over the Taiwan Straits. In addition; American Members of Congress threatened to retaliate against Europe by imposing more restrictions on transatlantic defence trade.

Since then, virtually all European governments have insisted on progress on human rights in China and some have even imposed other conditions.

This was the position expressed by the three main French Presidential candidates, Nicholas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, and Francois Bayrou, surveyed by Le Monde just prior to the first round of the election. This would indicate that eventually French position on the embargo would rejoin the EU consensus against lifting the embargo. It should also logically change the position on accepting the EU code of conduct on arms sales, and end its previous insistence that this could only be done if the embargo  on China were lifted.

However, in view of the obvious shift in EU sentiment, Chinese officials, although they continue to raise the issue, seem to acknowledge the improbability of the EU lifting the embargo in the short term.

There is also gradual movement within the Chinese system to ratify the UN Covenant on Political and Civil Rights, frequently mentioned in Europe as a condition for lifting the embargo. Internal Chinese studies had indicated a number of other domestic laws and regulations must be changed to accommodate the UN statute.

But other third parties, such as Japan and US, continue to press their opposition to any notion of the EU lifting the embargo on China.

German Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung  in Tokyo for a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kyuma was reported by Kyodo news agency April 19 to have agreed on the need for the European Union to continue its ban on exporting weapons to the PRC despite a plan by the European Union to lift the sanction, a Japanese Defense Ministry official said. Defense.  Minister Fumio Kyuma and his German counterpart shared the view during their meeting at the ministry in Tokyo that the PRC should be more open and transparent about its military policy and
spending, the official said.

No such declarations were made in Beijing when Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan held talks with his German counterpart, agreeing to further develop relations between the two armed forces, according to Xinhua and DPA news agencies. But the two countries agree to enhance and develop their defence and military relationship.

"The relationship has continuously deepened with the smooth development of relations between the two countries," said Cao, also vice-chairman of the Central Militay Commision and state councilor.

Cao said the two armed forces maintained high-level exchanges, and exchange and dialogue mechanisms are functioning well.

Jung said he thought it was important to develop relations between the two armed forces and Germany  was willing to work with China to promote exchanges and cooperation.

Jung said Germany supported the one-China policy and hoped to see a peaceful settlement of the  Taiwan issue.

The two also touched on international issues, including the Six-Party Talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the Iran nuclear issue and the Darfur issue, according to the Chinese Defense Ministry.

Jung, briefing journalists after his meetings with Vice President Zeng Qinghong and Defence Minister Cao Guanchuan, spoke of a "great consensus" and "common security interests" shared by the two countries.

He said the issues discussed included the crisis in the Sudan, the nuclear tug-of-war with North Korea and Iran, Kosovo, and various United Nations peacekeeping missions.

The two countries also agreed on deepeing their bilateral military policy cooperation, with China inviting Germany to observe Chinese military manouevres.

This invitation posed a "portion of trust" and more transparency, Jung said. To date, 80 Chinese officers had also received training in Germany, Jung said.

DF-April 20, 2007