Indonesia has been preparing for watershed elections for the Parliament and Presidency in April, July and September this year that could either solidify the huge country’s evolution toward democratic stability or increase the continuing sense of instability and conflict within its divided political and public interests.

It could have implications for the conflicts already raging in the troubled provinces of Aceh and Papua and other simmering flashpoints of tension in other regions which have threatened the dismemberment of the country since the independence of East Timor five years ago.

Neighbours in Southeast Asia and the international community have been observing quietly but anxiously out of concern for the political and economic future of the once-dominant force in the region as it evolves from its three decades of autocratic rule.

Twenty-four parties will contest the April 5 general election. Some 142 million Indonesians are said to be eligible to vote. Only parties and coalitions of parties that obtain 3% of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) or 5% of the total votes will be eligible to contest the country's first direct Presidential election on July 5.

To date, the election campaign appears to have been marked by a decline in the popularity of the President and her party and the parallel gain in support for the Golkar party of former President Soeharto, accompanied by a return to favour of the Indonesian military long associated with the previous regime. But the impact of such political fortunes on the general climate and results remained unclear into March 2004, with additional emphasis being placed on possible second-round alliances between parties and candidates. President Megawati is nevertheless believed by some observers to retain a lead among Presidential candidates although she is widely considered to have been largely ineffectual and bland. But the economy has recovered somewhat in recent months.

There was considerable speculation and some hints of a possible alignment between the President’s party and Golkar. The Speaker of the Indonesian Parliament, Akbar Tandjong, who is the chairman of Golkar, following his victory in a lengthy corruption trial vowed to contest the leadership of the party and presidency dedicated to combating corruption. But he indicated that if Golkar placed second in the April 5 Parliament elections, he would consider becoming a Vice Presidential candidate under incumbent President Megawati in the July 5 Presidential balloting. Another possible running mate for the President could be a high-profile military figure, Soesilo Bambang Yodhoyono, who is her Minister for Security and Public Order.

Multiple elections foreseen

Indonesia faces at least two and probably three national elections in 2004, including a presidential vote, but they are unlikely to bring fundamental change. Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with the half-decade of democracy and “money politics” they have experienced since the collapse of Soeharto’s authoritarian New Order.

The first election, on 5 April 2004, will fill almost 16,000 seats in legislatures at the national, provincial and district levels. The second, on 5 July 2004, will be its first direct presidential vote ever. If, as is almost certain, no candidate meets the criteria for election in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters will take place on 20 September. The process needs to be completed before President Megawati Soekarnoputri's term expires on 20 October. The campaign period begins on March 11.

Major elements in the campaign and elections, according to sources inside and outside the country, include the declining support for the President and the possible role of the military and Muslim organisations. A few other imponderables also include the growing role of civil society and the late arrival of a new candidate, former President Soeharto’s daughter.

President loses support

The Jakarta Post, reported recently that regional leaders of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) indicated to party leader Megawati Soekarnoputri that it would be difficult for the party to repeat its 1999 election success due to waning support in areas once considered its strongholds. Speaking at a national working meeting, the leaders said that internal conflicts had weakened the party, making it difficult to compete in the upcoming elections.

A public opinion survey indicated people's support for President Megawati Soekarnoputri has continued to drop ahead of the elections. The latest survey by Marketing Research Indonesia (MRI) showed that support for Megawati had slumped to 16 percent in September 2003, down from 23 percent in July 2003, 26 percent in 2002, and 49 percent in 2001. Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) also saw a continuous decline in support. The survey indicated that support for PDI Perjuangan fell to 17 percent in September, compared to 23 percent in July.The party received some 34 million out of the approximately 118 million votes, but there are expected to be some 20 million new voters in the forthcoming elections and party leaders told the Post it would be difficult to draw support from this new electorate and that it hopes to maintain its level of 1999.

Last chance for Amien

Many observers also feel that this year is plausibly the last chance for outsider Amien Rais and his National Mandate Party (PAN) to achieve his ambition of becoming the country's president. Amien, who was born in Solo, Central Java, in 1944, was one of four civilians who championed the fall of Soeharto in May 1998. If the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) speaker fails to be elected president in July's elections, it would be very hard for him to contest the 2009 general election. Of the four reformist figures, only Amien has not had the chance to lead the country. Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid became the country's fourth president in October 1999. The then vice president Megawati Soekarnoputri replaced Gus Dur in July 2001. The third person, Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, is a respected figure, but regarded more as a respected national figure.

This year's elections could also determine the future direction of the Muslim-based PAN. The party expects to double the number of votes it gained in the 1999 elections to about 15% in this April's legislative election. "Amien Rais Yes, PAN No," is a slogan displayed by many other Muslim voters.

Strength of military

Among the most popular candidates in the forthcoming elections are retired officers from the Indonesian military, the Tentara Negara Indonesia (TNI).That popularity stems from the fact that, despite six years of Reformasi, there is still hardly any economic progress, corruption remains rampant, and civilian politicians are constantly bickering, according to reports in the country.

Indonesians are tired, and among many, there is an increasing longing and nostalgia for the stability and prosperity of the old order - the so-called New Order under then President Soeharto.TNI generals are today's emblem of that old order.

Two things are said to be of particular concern to these candidates: First is the possibility of Indonesia breaking up. Separatist movements in Aceh and Papua aside, ethnic and religious conflicts in many parts of the archipelago endanger the fragile balance of the nation.

The other worry is the old contention between Islam and Pancasila (the official semi-secular state ideology introduced by Soeharto), which has been resurrected. As a nationalist organisation, the TNI is deeply concerned by this divisive issue. Realising that reassertion of control through the use of force would not only be too costly but also quite unacceptable in the globalised world, the TNI seems to have been aware that it should be able to play within the new rules of the game.

Many of the military candidates, including former Army chief General Wiranto have aligned themselves with a resurgent Golkar party, the movement of former President Soeharto which had been largely discredited following his ouster because of its association with the corruption, cronyism and nepotism (KKN) characterised by the New Order. Wiranto was himself driven from service when a UN court held him responsible for the atrocities committed under his command by the military in East Timor. He has said his “platform is not to revive the New Order or to construct a military regime,” but to unwind some of the recent policy reforms by reintroducing subsidies and other measures.

In another symbolic act recently, the newly established Constitutional Court issued a historic verdict allowing former PKI (Communist Party) members to contest in the legislative election, more than three decades after their constitutional rights were removed. Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Endriartono Sutarto a acknowledged the decision, but expressed the hope that former PKI members would no longer spread communism in the country. Chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama Hasyim Muzadi expressed a similar view, saying every citizen should have equal rights.

Surveys gauge opinion

Commenting on the political environment recently, Prof. Harold Crouch of the Australian National University and former director of the International Crisis Group Indonesia project, noted that Golka support had risen from 22% in 1999 to 30% recently, while the President’s party has suffered a comparable slump.

A poll conducted by Indonesia's leading online news portal detikcom showed 32% support for the presidential bid of former president Suharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardiyanti 'Tutut' Rukmana.. Tutut has been nominated for the presidency by the Party of Popular Concern (PKPB), which was established by former Army chief Raden Hartono at the behest of former president Suharto.

Meanwhile, a survey on the voters showed that the majority of people eligible to vote in next year's general election were politically alienated, intolerant and hoping for a strong leader like former dictator president Soeharto. The survey showed 53 % of voters would be happy to sacrifice political freedoms in return for electing an authoritarian leader capable of maintaining law and order.

The survey, titled Democracy in Indonesia: A Survey of the Indonesian Electorate 2003, was conducted through direct interviews and group discussions involving 1,056 eligible voters in 32 provinces, with a margin of error of around 3%. At least 65% of adults surveyed from June through until August 2003, said that they did not like politics at all because of widespread political corruption and poor political education.

The survey, which was conducted by Charney Research of New York and AC Nielsen Indonesia and commissioned by The Asia Foundation, suggested that the majority of voters were intolerant of minority groups. Only 8% were willing to vote for candidates of Chinese descent. Only 40% of those polled were willing to vote for women candidates.

The survey also indicated declining trust in the country's politics, reflecting continued concern about violence and political rows.

Recently hundreds of activists from non-governmental organizations (NGOs), students and youths had declared the founding of the 'National Movement for Not Electing Rotten Politicians'. The movement's objective is to build up voter awareness ahead of the 2004 polls so they would not elect candidates for the House of Representatives (DPR), the Regional Representatives' Council (DPD), or the presidency, who may have questionable backgrounds.

An annual public opinion survey conducted by IFES, an American-based international organisation, showed deteriorating optimism about economic and security issues among the Indonesian public. It found most Indonesians feeling the government had not brought significant improvements to the country in general and on specific issues. And there is dissatisfaction with the implementation of most of the reform agenda. The economic situation is the greatest preoccupation for 54% of the population down from 70% in 2002, with the increase in prices of basic goods mentioned as the greatest problem but in somewhat lower number than in the 2002 survey. There was rising concern expressed by 13% of the respondents, three times more than in 2002 and 2001, concerning security issues, possibly because of the launching of military operations by the government in Aceh. Law enforcement, political uncertainty and religious and ethnic tensions were also cited by less than 10% of the respondents.

Security problem

An academic centre for security analysis has identified at least 15 areas in the country that may see violence during the upcoming general elections. According to the Center for Security and Peace Studies (CSPS), a university think tank at Gadjah Mada University, eight of the 15 areas were located on Java: Pekalongan, Solo and Jepara in Central Java; Pasuruan, Situbondo, Sampang and Pamekasan in East Java; and Jakarta. The remaining seven are located outside Java: Sambas, West Kalimantan; Sampit, Central Kalimantan; Poso, Central Sulawesi; Morowali, Central Sulawesi; and Makassar, South Sulawesi; Bali and Papua.

On Jan. 20 national police chief General Da'i Bachtiar said that terrorist groups could use political rallies as cover to launch bomb attacks during the elections.

A recent ICG report especially spotlighted the renewed violence in Suluwesi. Recent violence in Poso (Central Sulawesi) suggests a need to revise assessments about the nature and gravity of the terrorist threat in Indonesia. “While the shorter term prospects are somewhat encouraging, there is an under- appreciated longer term security risk,” the report notes.

In October 2003, masked gunmen attacked Christian villagers in the Morowali and Poso districts of Central Sulawesi killing thirteen. The attacks took many outside the area by surprise. In December 2001, after three years of bitter sectarian conflict in which hundreds of Muslims and Christians had been killed, leaders of the warring parties had signed a peace agreement, the Malino Accord, which produced a dramatic decline in communal clashes. However, systematic, one-sided violence – bombings and “mysterious killings” by unidentified assailants, with overwhelmingly non-Muslim victims – continued. Many of the eighteen people arrested as of January 2004 appear to have had some contact with Jamat Islamyia through involvement in a militia called Mujahidin KOMPAK, an organisation whose leaders were sometimes drawn from JI, but which remained institutionally distinct.