More than six month after a splintered result in national Parliament elections in July 2003, Cambodia still finds itself in an apparently endless stalemate, political paralysis and a continuing cycle of intimidation and assassination.

Writing of the 1993 elections and preparations for the 1998 ones, Jeffrey Gallup in the book “Electoral Politics in Southeast and East Asia,” published in 2002 referred to the “cohercive power” of the ruling party and the “manipulated results” of the election process. He also noted “Improprieties and post-election conflict were surface manifestations of a broader political dynamic at work, in which political rivals, recently at war with one another, were struggling to keep or acquire power at any cost. While all parties were willing to try elections as a route to power, their commitment to the democratic election process as such was weak.”

The July 2003 Parliamentary election results announced August 8, noted the leading Cambodian Peoples’ Party (CPP) of long-time Prime Minister Hun Sen had obtained 47.5% of the vote, the Sam Rainsy Party 21.87% and the Royalist FUNCINPEC 20.75%, with 81.5% of the eligible voters casting a ballot.

In January, the death toll of political assassinations reached nearly 30, according to the estimate of one national human right group, in a little over a year. The latest murder of a prominent labour union activist associated with the opposition Sam Rainsy Party sparked more than the usual domestic and international outcry. The top UN human rights official, Acting High Commissioner for Human Rights Bertrand Ramcharan, condemned the slaying and called on political leaders in the country to send out a strong message and track down those responsible through an impartial investigation.

Pointing to the murder of several political opposition activists in recent months, Ramcharan underlined that “All states have an obligation to protect their citizens from arbitrary deprivation of life, and must be active in providing this protection where an individual has faced serious threats.”

Chea Vichea, 36, regarded as the most prominent labour activist, was shot to death in Phnom Penh after receiving several threats and his funeral brought ten of thousands of mourners a few days later. In the previous year, a political figure, a television journalist, and a popular singer were also killed and in some cases no arrests have been made. Some 15 of the fatalities have been associated with the Sam Rainsy Party, nine from the Royalist Funcinpec Party and four from the majority Cambodian People’s Party (CPP). In late January, authorities were said to have arrested two suspects in the Chea Vichea murder and obtained confessions, although some scepticism was expressed regarding the arrests.

The climate was also further agitated by charges for defamation filed against the Party leader Sam Rainsy for implying the Hun Sen group with responsibility for some of the murders. He also filed countercharges.

The continuing political carnage moved King Norondom Sihanouk to write from Beijing, where he was undergoing medical treatment, to deplore the series of “murders, assassinations, with a background that is unquestionably political.” Following one of the previous slayings in October, he had said the country had become “a jungle populated more and more by wild beasts.”

Post-Election Stalemate Continues

The bloodshed added to the climate of uncertainty and legal vacuum which has engulfed the country since the political parties failed to create a new government following the parliamentary election of July 2003, despite the revered King’s interventions and appeals. The CPP of Prime Minister Hun Sen obtained most votes, but not enough to form a new government without an alliance with other parties, which the two main opposition parties have in essence refused, seeking an alliance amongst themselves to govern.

European and other donors have expressed serious concern about the continuing stalemate that was seen as undermining leadership, decisionmaking and efficient governance, while adding to the prevailing economic and political drift and corruption. In recent months, both the official Swedish and French development aid or economic agencies have issued reports noting the “paralysis” and inhospitable environment for international aid or investment. As the political stalemate continues Cambodia’s economic situation is being put at some risk. There are already suggestions that various aid donors will not consider allocation of funds to Cambodia while there is no government in place. Lack of transparency has already led to Belgium and the Netherlands suspending aid to Cambodia.

The issue of political extremism, intimidation and murders had also been a persistent problem and concern of the international community in the past, especially during the phase prior to major elections.

The scheduled entry of Cambodia into the ASEAN regional group in August 1997 was delayed because the usual spiral of political violence in the country escalated into open low-intensity warfare. ASEAN has struggled for decades to restore stability in the ravaged country.

That particular round in conflict in 1997 had followed a period of months when the two co-Prime Ministers, Hun Sen and FUNCINPEC’s Prince Ranariddh had not spoken to each other and the National Assembly had not met since January. Each side had loyal forces including within the military and were seen as both competing to secure the backing of disintegrating Khmer Rouge elements. In March of that year a deadly grenade attack had been launched on a political demonstration in Phnom Penh led by Sam Rainsy, killing 19. Following the summer fighting, numerous FUNCINPEC officials were arrested or killed and Prince Ranariddh was deposed from his Prime Ministerial post although his party had won the plurality of votes in the 1993 elections.

EU Observer Mission Reports

In its immediate report after the July 27 2003 elections, the EU election observation mission, remarked that the vote had been “well conducted,” but that there was “still some way to go to full democracy.” In its final report later in the year, the mission also noted that the legal framework regulating the electoral process “had been substantially improved” following the previous elections in 1998 and 2002, which had also been observed by EU delegations. But while it praised the National Election Committee for a genuine commitment to improve and open up the process, it underlined that its directives “were not fully enforced. The reluctance of political parties and election officials to fully comply with the revised complaints and appeals system made it less effective.” It also underlined political interference by village chiefs and civil servants, vote-buying, uneven access to media and inflammatory rhetoric had generally created “an environment for the political campaign, which was favourable to the ruling party.”

It also noted that “Compared with previous elections the atmosphere was less tense and there were fewer violent incidents, but concerns remained during the pre-election period over the number of alleged political killings.” And it noted further that the overall lack of convictions and even of investigation into cases of alleged political killings since the last year (2002) Commune elections has contributed to a feeling of impunity.”

UN Tribunal Talks in Background

The political uncertainty in early 2004 was taking place at the same time that long-running talks between the Government in Phnom Penh and the UN appeared to be progressing on the establishment of a court to try the former leaders of the Khmer Rouge, which ruled the country during a reign of terror in the 1970s. Negotiators had sought for years to agree on terms for such a tribunal and were said by UN spokesmen to have finally agreed tentatively on a number of key plans including staffing, location and a concept of operation but not the precise number of indictees, financing and magistrate and prosecutors. The UN spokesman specified that the UN would assist Cambodia establish and operate two chambers in the tribunal, a trial court and the other a supreme appellate court within the Cambodian justice system.

The court and trials for possible war crimes and genocide had been a highly contentious issue in Cambodian political circles, with analysts suggesting that some in the country could fear evidence or accusations of their possible complicity during the Khmer Rouge rule and terror during which as many as a million Cambodians were massacred. The issue also had stalled negotiations with the UN to the point where the international body had broken off talks.

One of the last surviving members of the Khmer Rouge leadership, Khieu Sampan, was recently reported to have acknowledged genocide was committed and that he was prepared to stand trial.

International Stake in the Country

The country’s ability to create a functioning political system that survives the 80-year old monarch is an imperative that should be a high priority for the country and its neighbours.

Cambodia, despite its relatively low-profile in international affairs, could be regarded as playing a pivotal role in Southeast Asia and therefore by inference in Asia with repercussions on a wider scale.

It stands out as the only one of the four newer ASEAN member states to be in transition to a pluralistic and democratic process. Whereas its other emerging neighbours in Laos, Vietnam and Burma are generally seen as lagging behind in this process, Cambodia has held three national elections since it surfaced from decades of turmoil, isolation and authoritarianism following the Paris peace accords of 1991.

How it fares and evolves in this effort could be important to the others or even other states at a similar stage of political development. It is therefore of considerable significance to Europe, especially in view of the considerable amount of resources, aid and interest it has focused on the process of Cambodia peace, reconstruction, reconciliation and integration.

For its Asian neighbours, the stability and normalcy of Cambodia is also of perhaps more significance than they let on or even realised. The country, while not the most important or dynamic of the new ASEAN members is the only one of the three less-developed members that has displayed any sign or capacity of seeking a new status and its ability to lift itself out of its post-conflict depression could be an encouragement to the others. It is also one of the key members of the special effort being deployed in the Mekong River development area. The disturbing levels of rhetoric and tension with Cambodia's neighbours in Thailand and Vietnam have also been of concern and some damage and therefore need to be addressed and corrected with the establishment of stable institutions. Other neighbours, such as Japan, have also been supportive and invested heavily in the rehabilitation of Cambodia.