Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his Barisan Nasional (National Front) have won the March 21 parliamentary elections handsomely. Some quick observations of the elections a few days after it provide some fresh insights, but a more studied appraisal is required for longer-term impact and conclusions.

Analysts in the aftermath are discussing how the Prime Minister and his BN managed such a decisive victory in the election. In any speculation, there is probably a combination of factors. The Prime Minister’s personality, the way he came across has been pointed to. Evidently the way this image was appreciated. The leader of the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) spoke of the Abdullah tsunami effect. Other explanations turn on the failure of the opposition parties to work out agreements to avoid three-cornered competitions rather than contests between the BN and one single opposition party. Hence, there were constituencies where three-cornered or more contests took place to the detriment of the opposition.

The 1999 elections saw greater cooperation among opposition parties united around the case of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. This time around the Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim factor was largely absent especially of the Malays who coalesced around Parti Keadilan Nasional (PKN) led by his wife, Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. This party’s candidates lost all seats it contested except that of the Datin. There was also speculation on why this party lost and whether its future is in doubt. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) recovered its ground, attributed to its quitting from the Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front), distancing itself from the PAS and winning back Chinese votes. Malaysian politics has been ethnically-based since the post-Second World War decolonisation. It has also been speculated that the PKN lost because of its association with the PAS, although it is not a fundamentalist party but largely composed of the followers and supporters of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who had left UMNO with him. Before this election, some of these followers started their return to UMNO.

However, speculation surrounding the impressive win of the Prime Minister and the demise of the opposition has also been attributed to other factors. The process of gerry-mandering by a re-delineation of constituency boundaries have been pointed to. This diluted Malay-dominant constituencies by combining with geographic areas where Chinese and Indian dominate. The short campaigning of a week from the day of nomination, the shortest in election history, was also pointed to since the party in power with its access to the media already started campaigning long before. The media is largely owned or controlled by the parties of the BN. The opposition did not have sufficient time to campaig. The BN also had the advantage of financial resources.. Opposition parties lacked these resources and relied heavily on voluntary help from friends, sympathizers etc. even in terms of funds, while the BN could pay people to work for them.

Vote-rigging, not to speak of vote-buying, has been in the air as in all previous elections from the opposition side and in this election the performance of the Election Commission (EC) at polling stations was described as unprofessional, errors made which led to suspicions of it aiding the BN to win. The EC itself has called for an independent body to investigate its weaknesses and strengths which could include representatives from the major opposition parties.

The Chair of the EC had this to say quoted in a press report:

“The report should focus on the strengths and weaknesses of election laws, the Commission’s organisation and operations, any form of manipulation and any traceable abuse of the system,” he said, adding that it also ought to take into account manpower problems, especially the ability of EC officers to understand the law, their personalities, transparency, insubordination and others.”.

In this press report mention was made of an internal investigation to be carried out by EC Secretary, Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar, on a reported fiasco in Selangor on polling day, which prevented many voters from casting their votes. Apparently this also occurred elsewhere.

The EC Chair also reported being asked for an explanation by the Sultan of Selangor how the names of his friends who were previously on the electoral roll for Shah Alam were ‘transferred’ to Putrajaya.

This same publication also had another article entitled, “Barisan, rivals take EC to task” in which the opposition DAP Chairman Lim Kit Siang described the Sunday polls as the most chaotic and disgraceful elections the country had ever seen. Names were missing from the electoral roll, voters’ names had been moved to another state and there were last-minute changes in the electoral rules to allow the setting up of pondok panas (shelters) that had initially been banned. He said the extension of voting hours to 7:00 pm in Selangor was done arbitrarily without notification to the candidates and political parties. “So there should be fresh elections for all the Selangor state and parliamentary seats,” he said yesterday.

In Shah Alam, Keadilan President Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail said: ”We protest the procedure and EC’s supervision of the elections as we feel they were not fairly conducted and the results are questionable.” She added that her party would be serving petitions to the EC.

The opposition PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang urged supporters to present evidence of polling irregularities instead of merely talking about them.

Even parties of the BN had something to say. After a Gerakan Central Working Committee meeting in Kuala Lumpur, its leader, Dr Lim said: “There was something wrong with the preparation of the voters’ lists, with people who have been voting for five, six or seven elections, finding their names missing from the electoral rolls.” Bukit Bintang MCA division chief Datuk Dr Lee Chong Meng said: “We are gathering all relevant documents related to the elections and will submit them to our lawyers for further study.”.

These kinds of incidents provoke doubt in the public about other possible errors or abuses and on the landslide victory of the BN.

However, the EC Chair, when asked if any findings of the body would affect the validity of the polls results, said the body should merely focus on inherent weaknesses in the commission, and stressed that the just-concluded election had been properly conducted. So, there is a limit even as the credibility of the elections is at stake for the Malaysian public. Even if there is some relief that PAS was defeated, the question has been raised whether the performance of the EC led to the landslide victory of the BN. However, most observers believe that even if voting irregularities were corrected, there is no doubt that of the electorate’s overwhelming support of the Prime Minister and the BN.

Going beyond the elections, Malaysians are watching whether the BN’s leader’s promise of rooting out corruption will be carried through. His first anti-corruption actions before the elections helped Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his BN to win the elections. Malaysians are watching his Cabinet line-up. In the Mahathir cabinet, the public had its impression, rightly or wrongly, about possible conflicts of interest. If these ministers are retained then the public could become suspicious of the political will to carry out the promises. Right now there is confidence that it will be different and that this new Prime Minister can be trusted.

Further down the line, this mandate of an overwhelming win for the Prime Minister will put him in a good position to be re-confirmed the Chair of his party, the UMNO, when its General Assembly meets and also gives him the mandate to root out corruption in his party. This seems also in the mind in calling this election and attempting as resounding a victory possible before the party’s General Assembly. The new Prime Minister has to be his own man and not someone appointed to succeed his predecessor. He needed his own mandate to govern to mark the difference from the previous era.