Following a quiet but eventful few months recently, the pace of Asian politics is scheduled to accelerate dramatically in 2004 and beyond as many of the countries and entities face elections that could drastically alter the environment and stability of the region.

In addition, Japan is again headed into elections for the Upper House in June which could have important bearing on the ability of the Government of Prime Minister Koizumi to govern effectively.

In virtually all these elections, the outcome remains unclear and yet far-reaching. In a number of countries, there is a quest for stability either following the changing of the guard from one generation to the next of political leadership or an attempt to solidify a process of transition already launched. There are a large number of key elections planned in Southeast Asia. Only in Thailand does the fate of the incumbent, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appear as secure as possible in this otherwise uncertain political horizon. Similarly in Singapore, the departure of Premier Goh Chok Tong is also expected to be relatively orderly.

Europe and the rest of the international community will be watching some of these with special interest, but in their entirety they should be monitored, analysed and evaluated closely for their potential impact domestically, regionally and beyond. The outcomes could weigh heavily not only in the political stability of some countries and regions, but also have a profound effect on economics, reforms, human rights and regional tensions.

The elections will cover states and territories representing between 1.5 billion and 2 billion inhabitants or somewhere between half and one third of the Asian region. As such they represent a major element in the establishment of democracy internationally.

Europe and the rest of the international community have a considerable stake in the political and related economic stability of the region. Europe has become a major trade or financial partner to many of these countries, either as a leading source of Foreign Direct Investment, an important export destination or aid donour. Many European financial institutions suffered heavily in the 1997-8 Asian financial and economic crisis and continue to be heavily exposed in the region. The wave of election results could have an important impact on chances for growth and economic viability in several of these states

Recent elections in Cambodia, Japan, HK

Recent months have also seen important votes that have still not been fully digested into the political fabric of their societies. The impact of votes in Cambodia, Japan and Hong Kong which took place in the first case months earlier in 2003, were still unclear by the end of the 2004.

In the case of Cambodia, although the vote took place in July, no agreement on a new Government had been concluded by early December and while most analysts inside and outside the country felt relatively confident that there would be no repetition of past political turmoil and violence, the longer the situation remained unsettled the more likely the risk of more serious disruption. The EU Election Monitoring Mission, headed by a Member of the European Parliament Robert Evans, in November released its final report of findings based on its mission evaluation and presented as expected a mixed pictured of intimidation and some irregularities, but in a lesser degree than in the previous election. The results, which gave Prime Minister Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) a victory but not an outright majority in the national assembly also resulted in a deadlock since the Royalist FUNCINPEC and Sam Rainsey parties initially refused to participate in a Government headed by Hun Sen. The country's revered monarch King Sorodom Sihanouk repeatedly intervened to appeal or pressure the political parties to end the crisis, sometimes by threatening abdication. By early December laborious talks were continuing.

In Japan, while dust of the November election had settled relatively quickly, the medium or longer-term consequences of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) slide and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) startling rise into a possibly serious challenger are still uncertain. While the popular Prime Minister Koizumi, the LDP wing behind him and the DPJ stance on the reform of the country's economy are relatively close, Koizumi's ability to promote significant changes may have been undermined. One European-based Japanese diplomat termed the election results "devastating" for the Prime Minister and his party. He also underlined the election's clear polarisation of Japanese society between urban and rural forces and said the forthcoming elections for the Diet's upper house in June could be a crucial test of Koizumi’s continued ability to lead in such diminished circumstances.

Meanwhile in China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Zone, the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) slipped badly in local elections in November by losing a quarter of its seats on 18 district councils and the opposition Democratic Party made gains. The results followed an agitated campaign in previous months over the controversial Hong Kong government plan for a new internal security law which had resulted in mammoth opposition demonstrations and a possibly indefinite delay in introducing the legislation. Ironically, some analysts indicated the opposition successes could also cause delays in further reforms or elections that could run counter to Beijing positions. One reform pushed by many in the opposition would establish universal suffrage in the elections for the Chief Executive in 2007 and Legislative Council in 2008, as suggested by the Basic Law. Other Legislative Council elections are scheduled for late summer 2004.

Elections in four key states in India in late November also testified to the political give and take in that giant country as part of the preparations for the national vote to the Lok Sabah or Parliament in October 2004. On these votes ride the fortunes of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his Hindu nationalist BJP party versus those of Sonia Ghandi and the Congress Party, which still holds power in numerous states.

Future historic votes

Beginning in early 2004 many Asian voters will have the opportunity to decide on major changes in the direction of their leadership. Major elections in Asia begin in March with Presidential elections in Taiwan, Parliamentary elections in Indonesia and South Korea in April. Presidential and Parliamentary balloting takes place in the Philippines in May and the first round of Indonesia's Presidential elections takes place in July.

In some regions the political atmosphere is already highly-charged as part of constant and intense political infighting in anticipation of elections that may be close at hand or in the distant future.

This is the case in Taiwan, India, the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand, although in the latter general elections are not scheduled until 2005 but numerous gubernatorial or local elections are planned sooner.

International attention has already focused extensively in Taiwan in the buildup to the Presidential vote there and the debate over calls for a referendum on independence, which Beijing reacted strongly against since it considers Taiwan a part of the mainland. It is likely that the global debate will even grow in intensity during the interval as both sides seek international support.

The atmosphere in India for the national parliament has also been escalating with a steady parade of state elections prior to that. And speculation has also been strong in the Philippines over the chances of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for her first elected full term and in Malaysia in the transition from long-time Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who stepped down in favour of his chosen successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who has indicated he might move up elections scheduled for the end of 2004 in the face of significant Islamic and other opposition. The campaigning for both Parliamentary elections in the spring and Presidential balloting later in Indonesia is also regarded as crucial for the country and the region.

Global attention has also been riveted on Afghanistan, where the country is planning its first elections following the international ouster of the Taliban, the establishment of a transition regime and continued internal turmoil.