Following months of sometimes intense and conflicting pressures and diplomatic activity, the uncertainty threatening the staging of the highly symbolic summit of European and Asian leaders in Vietnam was resolved in September. A momentary truce was declared in the long-standing dispute between Asia and some European governments over the involvement of Myanmar and new EU and ASEAN members at the summit.

The EU, which has applied sanctions to isolate the military regime in Rangoon and visualises even tighter restrictions, agreed as it has previously in other ministerial meetings in the past to allow lower-level Burmese representatives to attend the Hanoi summit for heads of state and governments.

The EU also warned that unless the Burmese authorities release dissident Nobel-prize winning Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest and permit representatives from her National Democratic League (NDL) to participate in the national constitutional conference underway since April by the time of the Hanoi summit, the EU would apply even stronger travel and economic sanctions.

In the aftermath of the September EU Ministerial decision, the Government of Burma/Myanmar strongly criticised the EU and US for their policy of sanctions, accusing them of promoting poverty, instability and conflict in the country. In addition, French diplomats were also reported to be opposed to the tightening of EU sanctions.

The EU decisions were sharply criticised by exile and opposition groups, such as the UK Burma campaign, which issued a statement deploring the fact that, “John Prescott, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder will be sitting with dictators,” when they attend the ASEM meeting. The group pointed to the limited nature of EU travel restrictions and to the fact that a number of EU companies were still conducting increasing business in the country. Despite these and stronger US economic sanctions against Burma, the country was said to have experienced strong 5% economic growth in recent periods. The UK lobby group has also criticised the absence of strong UN involvement in the issue, although it praised the efforts of the UN special envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ismael, who has also urged more UN and regional action.

The debate had long threatened to derail both the holding of the long-scheduled summit and possibly seriously undermine the momentum and credibility of the Euro-Asian dialogue and relationship.

For several weeks preceding the Foreign Ministers’ meeting, the Dutch Presidency conducted a number of diplomatic missions aimed at breaking the deadlock which had developed over the issue since the national constitutional conference began in April without the release of Aung San Suu Kyi or the participation of her National League for Democracy, as had been widely anticipated. A first mission to some ASEAN capitals had been undertaken by former Dutch Foreign Minister and EU Commissioner Hans van den Broek and a second by current Foreign Minister Bernard Bot to Indonesia. But neither seemed to bring back a solid compromise although the EU and its ASEM partners had both said the Hanoi Summit should proceed.

The difficulty in reaching the ultimate compromise agreement September 3 between the EU members and with the EU’s Asian partners, however, did not give any signs that a more fundamental resolution could be found in time to head off even more explosive confrontations in the future, especially when Myanmar is scheduled to assume the chair of ASEAN Governments in 2006.

The developments also coincided with the release of the latest analysis on the situation by the International Crisis Group (ICG) in Brussels. The ICG advised that despite continuing state repression in Myanmar and widespread international unwillingness to deal directly with the regime, properly targeted developmental and humanitarian aid can and should be given to help a limited and particular part of the country. “The remote, mountainous areas along the borders with Thailand, Laos, China, India and Bangladesh, largely populated by ethnic minorities, have long suffered from war and neglect, which have undermined development. Extreme poverty is widespread, though the area contains more than a third of the country's population and most of its natural resources. The Border Areas also link to some of the world's fastest growing economies. The prospects for Myanmar's peace, prosperity and democracy are thus closely tied to the future of these regions,” the report added.

A long-time analyst of the Burmese situation, Professor Robert Taylor of the Singapore Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and formerly with the London School of Oriental and African Studies, also remarked that the constitutional convention was said to include “some very hard talking” between the government and ethnic and other political groups about ethnic rights. He suggested that these discussions could end by the spring of 2005 and that following the drafting of constitutional text and a national referendum later in the year, the regime could prepare for elections in 2006 to coincide with its tenure of the ASEAN Presidency. He believes that in addition to Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, there are elements in the military government that feel that previous isolationist regimes were a failure and are bent on modernising and strengthening the state and economy. He believes they are “very different people” than the previous cast of military dictators.

In an interview with Irrawady magazine in February 2004, he was asked about the prospects for political reform and withdrawal of the military. He replied “ It can’t happen with the current economic structure as it is presently in Myanmar and the sanctions remaining in place. If the economy were to develop, if the economy were to integrate into the world economy, if the economy got sufficiently complex, the Army could no longer manage it and they would need to rely on civilian bankers, traders, businessmen, foreign investors, and international financial institutions, and after that you change the whole political structure inside the country. It’s a slow gradual process as we saw in South Korea and Taiwan, or Thailand.”