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Sep 14
2009
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The recent elections in Japan may have marked a historic turning point not only for that important country, but for Asia and the International Community.
Not only did the Japanese electorate decide to attempt to close the era of what had essentially become a one-party state, it seemed also to have elected a potential new force not only in domestic politics, but in international affairs as well. In the uncertain real world of Japanese and global politics, only time will tell whether this amounts to real, virtual, or only momentary change.
The desire for a change was overwhelming. But was it more a protest vote against decades of complacency, stagnation or even decline by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party? Could it have been only an understandable reaction against the global economic and social crisis, which in Japan has only prolonged what had been termed "the lost decade?"
Numerous analysts, political figures and other commentators have either cautiously withheld judment, or suggested that there may be not significant change in either internal or foreign policies under the new Democratic Party of Japan Premier. .Some did focus on his apparent criticism of past American orientations and his country's strong identification with its trans-Pacific ally and assumed the new Japanese Administation would not go so far as to undermine that relationship.
To be sure, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who himself is a former LDP member, may not have a broad margin of maneuver with a broad coalition of small parties that spans a broad political spectrum. It includes Socialists and former ruling LDP members who are said to be more to the right than the recent Prime Ministers Aso and Abe. But perhaps he should draw inspiration from the successes of other Asian colleagues in India and Indonesia, who saw their own leadership of disparate coalitions rewarded in elections this year by electorate support for more power. And he could count on broader international support for Japan to take a new approach after decades of dependency in domestic and international affairs. What is more important, according to a seasoned Japanese analyst in Europe, could be his support among a whole new generation of Japanese who regard the old-style national political system as in need of more contact with reality.
The next few weeks should bring additional insight as the new leadership meets with the G-20 conclave, East Asian partners and others. And a prime Japanese sources also points to elections next year to the Upper House that should focus the mind and also bring fresh reactions from the public.As the Financial Times of London remarked in an editorial September 1, "It must show it can govern...must move quickly to establish its credentials" at the same time it must persuade markets that its social and fiscal promises "will not break the bank."
Parisian daily Le Monde September 1 cited Pierre-François Souyri, professor of Japanese studies at the University of Geneva, as noting that the election marked "the end of the postwar period in Japan," and recommending that the DPJ make itself the guarantor of the country's pacifist constitution, which the LDP had begun to challenge, and improve relations with China. Editorial opinion in Germany tended to emphasise the "revolutionary" nature of the vote that also closed the postwar period, its desire to "send the LDP packing" and of the "mandate for change." The Berlin Tagespiegel remarked that "things can only get better, " while the more conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung commented "The word 'revolution' doesn't exactly fit with what has happened in Japan. At first glance it's pretty easy to assume Sunday's results are revolutionary. However, in the first moments of his triumph, Hatoyama had already announced that a DPJ-led government would not change everything in Japan. And perhaps that's even the key to why a former opposition party won in such an overwhelming way. The Japanese simply hope things will get better (again). They will probably have to face disappointments, but it's doubtful they will be yearning for the LDP's return anytime soon."
After years of political agitation and radicalism in Japan in the 1960s and 1970s, dissent had been gradually marginalised in recent decades and condemed as ambarrasing or shameful. But the vote suggested it had not completely disappeared but was mounting to a tipping point in the wake of evident lack of leadership or solution to pressing public concerns.
What have probably alarmed more conservative observers around the world seemed to revolve around his spoken and implied criticism of American "unilateralism" and "market fundamentalism" and his vision of a united Asia that draws inspiration from the European experience, even going so far as advocating eventually a common Asian currency.
Possibly most disturbing for American partners was his persistent harsh tone of criticism for what American leadership in economic and political issues has stood for for the past decade or more, culminating in his support for a redefenition of the US military presence in Japan and a more "equal" relationship.
But his chosen Foreign Minister, Katsuya Okada, spent a year at Harvard, maintains close ties to American policymakers and is considered more pro-American than others in the DPJ, although he severely criticised previous Japanese governments for spoiling relations with Asian neighbours, indicating some balance in priorities.
Hatoyama's insistence on Japan's key role in the global dialogue on climate change seemed to some in Europe as a welcome change, that could combine with the comparable American change of heart to embolden Europeans who seem increasingly weary of bearing the brunt of advocacy for meaningful efforts to address climate change during what also seemed like a "wasted decade" since adoption of the Tokyo Protocol. The first Japanese measure recently, according to first reactions, seem to have drawn the predictable reservation from Japan's powerful business and industrial lobbies, who should instead be in the vanguard of those who know from experience how to be more competitive by being more efficient.
Also indicative, disturbing to some of course, have been Hotoyama's suggestions he could terminate his country's participation in military support missions in the Indian Ocean in support of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.Japan may be of more help, like the EU, as a civilian alternative to global challenges than as a largely meaningless symbolic supporter of the military option.
In addition, coming after years of hesitation, confusion, but some nevertheless well-intentioned initiatives to create an East Asia Community or proposals for a regional security system, the arrival of such leadership or support from Tokyo should be welcomed and taken up. In his widely-noted August article, Hatoyama observed: "Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Of course, the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy. But at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality, must be recognized as Japan's basic sphere of being. So we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the region."
Citing the European example, Hatoyama stressed the objectives or currency integration and resolving difficult political, historical, security dispute
But what may have been a most remarkable element of his pronouncement in the international press, was his repeated references to either a desire for a new form of what he termed "fraternity" in East Asia, and his equally frequent references to the European experiences.
Either he or his ghost writer displayed a knowledge of the historical underpinning of European integration that goes beyond those of most Europeans for that matter. He cited Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, the Austro-Hungarian leader of the early pan-European movement in the early 20th century, whose mother was Japanese. In a book translated by Hatoyama's grandfather, the European prophet remarked: "All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality. Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it."
One Internet blogger also underlined that former Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda had also cited European socio-historian Fernand Braudel in one of his major presentations during his brief tenure.
It would be a wasted opportunity for Japan, Asia, or the country's Western partners not to take up the challenge.

