Surges and Slumps in Asian Politics

Following the first wave of 2004 elections in Asia this past weekend, one incumbent who gambled on his future appeared to have gained in legitimacy in Malaysia, whereas another appeared to have gambled and cast his legitimacy into doubt in Taiwan.

Surges and Slumps in Asian Politics

Following the first wave of 2004 elections in Asia this past weekend, one incumbent who gambled on his future appeared to have gained in legitimacy in Malaysia, whereas another appeared to have gambled and cast his legitimacy into doubt in Taiwan.

In a turbulent first round of elections, the contrasting outcomes resulted in a surprise landslide for the ruling coalition and its new Prime Minister in Malaysia that could lead to even greater stability and prosperity in that ASEAN country, but a highly contested and also stunning result in the Presidential and security referendum votes in Taiwan threatened to cast doubt on President Chen Shui Bian’s claim to a slim victory and on the post-election climate.

Another Asia state was also thrown into confusion when a brawling session of the opposition-controlled national parliament impeached South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun in a vote that was widely regarded in the country as backfiring just ahead of parliament elections in April.

The election success of the ruling United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) was regarded as a personal victory for the recently appointed Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who had taken over five months earlier after 22 years of rule by his predecessor Mahatir Mohhamed. The 2004 not only strengthened his party and coalition standing in the Parliament and State assemblies, it may have overturned the recent victories of the opposition Islamist Party PAS in two key states of Terangganu and Kelatan. In the run-up to the election, the new Prime Minister had sought to disengage himself from the alleged cronyism and showcase projects of his predecessor and to stress a moderate brand of Islam, thus seeking to underline the support for the opposition.

Feelings and mass demonstrations in South Korea and Taiwan were continuing to run high days after the decisions.

Taiwan became the scene of mass gatherings immediately following the declared victory of President Chen with a margin of 30,000 votes out of 13 million cast, with some 300,000 declared null and void. The vote on March 21 came just a day after a mysterious shooting incident in which the President and Vice President were slightly wounded and return to public view after a brief treatment. The results of the referendum asking mainland China to engage in discussions regarding its missile deployment and the security of Taiwan failed to obtain a sufficient turnout of 50% of the voters and was therefore invalid.

Opposition candidate Lien Chan appealed immediately for a recount and the ballot boxes were sealed pending a decision by the High Court whether to stage a recount, which could take weeks or months.

On the Monday following the vote, the Taiwan Stock Exchange index took an immediate plunge of 6% in the uncertainty.

Numerous analysts expressed the feeling that even if President Chen were declared the winner for a four-year term with such a narrow margin and the defeat of his major referendum strategy, his authority in such a divided electorate would be seriously undermined.

In South Korea, tens of thousands of persons participated in a series of mass demonstrations, sometimes by candlelight, in protest at the impeachment decision. In one such parade in Seoul and across the nation more than a week after the March 12 impeachment, some 130,000 to 200,000 marched in protest and against the country’s dispatching of 3600 troops to Kirkuk in Iraq, which has been delayed following the terrorist attack in Madrid.

In the Parliament itself, a number of opposition members, generally young politicians, were pushing to rescind the decision in what some analysts were referring to as a “desperate” move to slow or halt the fall of their parties’ popularity in public opinion polls in anticipation of general elections April 15. Some 50 or so lawmakers from the Grand National Party, Millenium Democratic Party and United Liberal Democrats, including some aspiring party leaders, were said to be in favour of a repeal, which they said was more reflective of the mood of the people. The Korea Herald commented that the opposition may have committed “political suicide” with the impeachment. It also said that this represented a “watershed” in Korean history.

In the meantime, President Roh was replaced by the Prime Minister Goh Kun until the Constitutional Court decides on the validity of the impeachment.

Our coverage of these and other elections and political processes in Asia will continue and provide more information and insight as soon as possible.