Pressure Builds Up on DPRK in Nuclear Talks

International negotiations and internal economic reforms could reach a critical juncture in the survival of North Korea in the coming months unless the diplomatic deadlock over the country's nuclear weapons programmes is resolved, European and Asian experts indicated recently.

Yongbyon nuclear facility in March 2003

Glyn Ford, a British Labour Member of the European Parliament, who has frequently visited the controversial state, was a member of a small delegation of party leaders to the Northeast Asian Communist state embroiled for the past year in an international dispute over its nuclear programmes.

Ford told a small group organised by the European Institute for Asian Studies that while the free markets and "monetarisation" seemed to be an example of a shift in economic policy and strategy after decades of rigid controls, it could also work to the detriment of rural and poor populations who cannot afford the high prices of the otherwise scarce goods. While the markets disgorge products ranging from high-priced electrical supplies to computer equipment and imported foods, the system cannot supply basic necessities such as rice and porc. He termed the process a "pre-selection for starvation."

Ford also commented into the relative absence of the EU in the international community's discussions on the DPRK and the ongoing global concern about the DPRK's nuclear arms activities. He noted, for example, that while many in Europe had been embarrassed by the exclusive of Europe in the six-power talks in Beijing on the Korean crisis, virtually all participants said they would have accepted European participation, but that the EU did not ask to play a role despite its membership in the KEDO programme.

US shifts stance

The comments came just before an intensification of these discussions on the occasion of a six-day visit to various Asian countries by US President George W. Bush in connection with the holding of the annual Summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Council (APEC) in Bangkok.

The impression given by President Bush during his various public statements and accounts of private meetings filtering to the press, as well as briefing by such accompanying aides as National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice, was that the US had shifted somewhat from its previous hard-line refusal of offering any security assurances requested by North Korea to a more moderate stance suggesting some form of multilateral guarantees. While these were instantly dismissed by North Korea as "laughable," many other states in the region greeted the apparent US shift with approval. A few days later, however, Pyongyang was reported as indicating it would consider the proposal.

States in the region and elsewhere have been alarmed at the confrontation between North Korea and the US and have sought to press both sides to make moves to permit a new six-nation gathering in Beijing before the end of the year to ease the tension. The recent shift in Washington thinking on this issue and the involvement of the other major players in the region in multilateral security guarantees could provide a workable agenda for the next meeting in Beijing.

Beijing supplies key to survival

Beijing has been a key factor in the recent phases of the process, pressuring Pyongyang to accede to talks earlier in the year by temporarily delaying deliveries of oil desperately needed by North Korea. China's troublesome neighbour has been dependent on China since the demise of the Soviet Union, which had been the country's main provider of necessities.

A South Korean study has indicated that this dependence is currently so tight that if China closed deliveries of fuel and foodstuffs, the DPRK would collapse in three months. But the researcher has also said that Beijing has decided not to exercise such an option and elected to give the regime three years to reform and improve its economy, using the leverage of its supplies selectively to press the Northern regime into concessions and reform.

This perceived decision by China is designed to maintain the Communist Government of Kim jong-il on a tender lifeline and avert the humanitarian and political debacle that could follow a regime collapse and engulf the neighbouring countries.

Energy crisis possible

Glyn Ford, on return from his latest visit, told others in Brussels that Kim jong-il has "bought half of the Chinese economic model, he has bought reforms but not the openness," which could doom the attempt since it would discourage wary international investors.

But he also adds that even the reforms could also backfire since they might result in a shift of resources to Pyongyang, where resident have higher wages to pay for necessities, and away from the countryside, "creating an underclass of some 4 million," he remarked.

Although recent harvests have been extremely good and outbreaks of malaria have subsided, Ford reported that many in the country are bracing for a crisis, when the multinational Korean Energy Development Organisation (KEDO) shuts down and energy supplies cease, unless South Korea or others assumes the responsibility for taking over the supplies.

It is widely expected that the KEDO members, which include the European Union, will decide soon to terminate the programme in view of US and North Korean declaration proclaiming the collapse of the project which emerged following a previous nuclear arms proliferation crisis in the mid-1990s.

Up to now little attention has been focused on prospects for any semblance of a follow-up to the KEDO concept that would address North Korea's energy crisis and be crucial in any settlement.